地点：行健楼学术活动室526
邀请人：高洪俊 教授
摘要：All countries use some version of a gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of the overall health of their economy. This paper is a study of uctuations in the U.S.
GDP around locally de ned balanced growth paths. In this talk we describe a high precision time series model that accounts for capital dependent saving and time delays in an uncertain environment. We use a continuous time formulation and analysis that leads to a discrete time model. Linearization of the model about a balanced growth path yields a method for representing uctuations in growth data as a superposition of three processes that evolve on dffierent time scales{slow, intermediate, and fast. The resulting frequency based decomposition is used to predict future growth trends (expansions and contractions) in the economy.